Hot time in Yorba Linda

Well here we are, recovering from massive doses of triptophan (Happy Thanksgiving) and very grateful after going through what was a very scarey weekend.

I'm talking about the Triangle Fire, of course, and the mayhem and madness which ensues anytime we get Santa Ana winds.


We were very lucky, we were evacuated on Saturday night, and the wind died down that night and we were able to return home on Sunday afternoon. Kathy, my wife, was trying to pack every single photograph in our possession into our cars, and our youngest daughter, Chelsea, packed every item of clothing that she owns into her little Ford Mustang. It was amusing and impressive at the same time. At least we were able to clean her room before the clothes returned.

It's tragic that 118 houses were lost, and a lot of people are looking for someone to blame, the City of Yorba Linda is getting a lot of criticism for the water pressure being so low, and rightly so, the water pressure in Yorba Linda stinks. Also, I find it amazing that as we are faced with a major crisis in the city, with pretty much the entire north and east sections of the city treatening to be burnt to the ground, there is absolutely nothing on the city's cable chanel advising of where to evacuate to, who to contact; there was not any information whatsoever.

A huge kudos to all of the firefighters that worked so hard to save what they could; it was awesome watching the Fire Department helecopters and planes working so hard. A huge thank you to them, as well as all of the law enforcement personnel that assisted. The helecopters were refilling in a pond on the Black Gold Golf Course, and the DC-9 that flew over was awesome.

I only personally know of one person that lost their house; I cannot even imagine what that must be like.

All in all, I am happy to be back to business as usual in the Miller household, as chaotic as that may be, and my thoughts and prayers go out to those who have suffered loss from the fires.

Hot Fun in the Summertime

Well hello boys and girls!

Here we are, the year half gone and there is just so much going on I am about to pass out from the excitement. (yeh, right)

I don't know about you'all, but when it gots to be over 100 deg. in Yorba Linda, that's hot. Now I'm not going to get into a who's got it hotter debate, it's just that we get spoiled her in Orange County, and when it gets above 80 or below 65, everyone freaks out. Kind of like when we get rain, every driver on the road forgets how to drive. And with the traffic the way it is, especially on the 91 or going through the Orange Crush, well, vehicular manslaughter becomes an option.

I went on a three day Men's Spititual Retreat in Valyermo, and that was great. The men's group that I'm involved with goes on this retreat once a year, about 30 of us to an Abbey, and it is really great to be able to let down the walls and get closer to men that I am proud to call friends.

I got back from that trip at noon on Sunday, took a quick shower and I was off again to Sedona with the wife, the youngest daughter Chelsea, and one of Chelsea's friends, Kayla. Thank God for ipods and texting. Drove for Seven Hours and hardly heard a peep from the girls (are we there yet?) It was a great trip until I got the bright idea to come back through Phoenix, it was hotter than Hades, 117 deg. How do people even exit in that kind of heat? But it's a dry heat, well so is a pottern Kiln, and I don'r intend to jump iinto one of them anytime soon.

My brother TJ and I usually go to the gym and then to IHOP for breakfast every sunday morning to workout and keep connected, but we've started going to the driving range. Yes, it's true, I am now a fledgling golfer. I've always loved the clothes, Argyle and plaids run in my blood, and I got my rear kicked in what was average sized surf at Newport, so maybe it's time to learn how to do this golf thing. I guess I'm doing alright so far, as Daddy Bill used to say, nobody has been hurt so far.

TJ and I were talking about music, as we usually do everytime we're together, although TJ is very happy to be stuck in the 60's, my taste is a bit more eclectic (he'd say wierder) but the subjact came to if we could, what music would we have play at our funeral? TJ has chosen "Darkness Darkness" by the Youngbloods and "On The Inside" by Jethro Tull. So far most of what I like would be really inappropriate, perhaps "The Gymnopédies" by Eric Satie and "Surf's Up" by the Beach Boys, as well as "Empty Room" by Margorie Fair are maudlin enough, altough "Here Come The Warm Jets" by Brian Eno or "Say You Don't Love Me" by the Buzzcocks are perhaps my two favorite songs of all time. "Natures Way" by Spirit comes to mind...

Celebrating the girls High School Graduation at Pirates in Buena Part. I even got to be part of the pre-show audience participation!

Oh well, such are the thoughts that occupy my mind on a daily basis.

Post Valentines Day Bliss

What is going on? I hope that everyone had a great Valentines Day; if you are in a relationship, I hope it went well, If you are looking for a relationship, good luck, if you hate everyone of the opposite sex, sorry, letter luck on Easter!

So what's going on in the wonderful world of Real Estate? Well, for first time buyers, it's a great time to take that first step and get that great house at a great price. For Investment properties, there are some real deals for the taking, if you're patient and willing to deal with a sort sale.

Here's the current numbers courtesy of Russell Foster at Extra Mile Financial 714-349-5452. You can contact him at Russell@goEMF.com.

Gas prices*
National
Current: $2.95 Last Week: $2.97 Last Year: $2.20
California
Current: $3.11 Last Week: $3.11 Last Year: $2.63

*Based on average price per gallon for Regular-grade retail Gasoline, figures released weekly on Monday

Mortgage Rates*
30 Year Fixed
Current 5.72% Last Week: 5.67% Last Year 6.30% My Rate: 5.625%
15 Year Fixed
Current 5.25% Last Week: 5.15% Last Year 6.03% My Rate: 5.25%
5/1 ARM
Current 5.19% Last Week: 5.21% Last Year 6.01% My Rate: 4.75%
1 year ARM
Current 5.00% Last Week: 5.03% Last Year 5.52% My Rate: 4.75%

*Based on Freddie Mac national average. Figures released weekly on Thursday. Yes, my rates are real.


Financial Markets and Info
US 10 Year Treasury
Current 3.77% Last Week: 3.66% Last Year 4.69%
This index is a good indicator for fixed mortgage rates. Generally, a decrease in bond yield is good for interest rates.
Prime Index
Current 6.00% Last Week: 6.00% Last Year 8.25%
This index is what home equity lines are based on.
Dow Index
Current 12,376.98 Last Week: 12,247.00 Last Year 12,765.01
Nasdaq*
Current 2,332.54 Last Week: 2,293.03 Last Year 2,497.10

*"current" stock index values based on prior day's close

Unemployment*
National
January 2008: 5.4% December 2007: 4.8% January 2007: 5.0%
Orange County
December 2007: 4.3% November 2007: 4.2% December 2006: 3.2%

*Not seasonally adjusted. Figures released monthly. National typically gets released earlier than OC

C.A.R. Home Affordability Index*
California
Q3 2007: 24% Q2 2007: 24% Q3 2006: 24%
Orange County
Q3 2007: 24% Q2 2007: 23% Q3 2006: 22%
Los Angeles County
Q3 2007: 20% Q2 2007: 20% Q3 2006: 19%

*This is the percentage of California households that can afford to purchase an median-priced home.

Real Estate Stats
Median Home Price*
California
December 2007: $402,000 November 2007: $414,000 December 2006: $472,000
Orange County
January 2008: $520,000 December 2007: $565,000 January 2007: $600,000

So what's it all mean? Even though medican home prices are down accross the board, there is light at the end of the tunnel. As I remind everyone I know, everything is cyclical; this rough period will pass and we'll all look back and say, MAN! that was a tough time, but I survived!

My wish is for everyone not just to survive, but to thrive.

God Bless, and hang tough!

Stephen

The curent state of affairs

Here we are, at the dawning of a new year, and what the heck is going on.
The Real Estate Market continues it's downward slide, and while this is a terrible time for those of us with Option ARM's and Interest Only home loans (loans that are quickly becoming upside dowm), it's a great time to get your first home, or to purchase that investment property.
There are some really great deals to be had, and although the unfortuanate fact is that they come at the misfortune of others, now is the time to buy.
I am asked again and again when will we hit bottom: I wish I knew. It all depends on who you listen to. I've heard that recovery is just around the corner, and we should see a rebound by the end of the year; I've also heard that the recovery is several years away, and that a lot of people still have to lose their homes before all of the mortgage lending fiasco finally corrects itself.
The fact that Federal Reserve Bank President Ben Bernanke stated in his Economic Outlook speach on 1/10/08 that the Fed will aggressively cut interest rates to help slow any economic slowdown is a good sign for all of us.
Indications are that he will again cut the Federal rate .5% at the next meeting on the 30th of this month. This will help all aspects of the economy, specifially anyone with an Equity Line of Credit, who should see an immediate drop in their payment as interset rates adjust downward.
Let's hope that we are bouncing at the bottom of the economic downturn, and mearly slowing as we near the crash landing. I remain an optimist (as foolish as that may be) and I look forward to a better year in 2008 than we had in 2007.

Current facts:
Calif. median home price - November 07: $488,640 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region November 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,075,000 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region November 07: High Desert $262,650 (Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Third Quarter 07: 24 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates - week ending 01/03: 30-yr. fixed: 6.07%; Fees/points: 0.5%; 15-yr. fixed: 5.68%; Fees/points: 0.6%; 1-yr. adjustable: 5.47%; Fees/points: 0.5% (Source: Freddie Mac)

Let's make this a better year...

Hi guys,

Time for a little reflecting on what's been happening in the wonderful world of Stephen.

Kathy and I have been blessed with a grandson, Jaiden Andrew Cubias, and he's a real sweetheart. Although at times he thinks that grandpa is just a big teething ring (yes I washed my hands..)

Andrea had a great solo for El Dorado's Vocal Department show "Tinsel", a wonderful rendition of the Christmas Song (chestnuts roasting on an open fire..) As soon as I get the video I'll post it.

Here's Annie, Kayla and Hanna

We've had our share of up's and downs, but life on the whole was really kind to me this year.

I left Tristar and joined SRS, which has me working harder than ever to transition to Real Estate full time. It's not that SRS is a bad company, I'm just so sick of Workers' Compensation.

Kathy was pretty happy with her first Christmas as Grandma, and even got some nice bling from Sasha.

Real Estate Notes and Observations

Greetings friends and neighbors,

As we meet the New Year, many thoughts come to mind, first and foremost, when the heck is the housing market going to pull out of it's nosedive?

I was reminded by my brother of a basic fact; what people perceive as real, is real.

So I can't help but get a bit frustrated when the financial Guru's predict that the market will not get better until 2010, or worse yet, that we are headed into a full scale recession.

Yes times are tough, but here are the facts as of 12/30/07

Gas prices*
National
Current: $2.94 Last Week: $2.96 Last Year: $2.30
California
Current: $3.26 Last Week: $3.29 Last Year: $2.61

*Based on average price per gallon for Regular-grade retail Gasoline, figures released weekly on Monday

Mortgage Rates*
30 Year Fixed
Current 6.17% Last Week: 6.14% Last Year 6.22%
15 Year Fixed
Current 5.79% Last Week: 5.79% Last Year 5.93%
5/1 ARM
Current 5.90% Last Week: 5.90% Last Year 5.98%
1 year ARM
Current 5.53% Last Week: 5.51% Last Year 5.47%

*Based on Freddie Mac national average. Figures released weekly on Thursday.

Financial Markets and Info
US 10 Year Treasury
Current 4.08% Last Week: 4.17% Last Year 4.62%
This index is a good indicator for fixed mortgage rates. Generally, a decrease in bond yield is good for interest rates.
Prime Index
Current 7.25% Last Week: 7.25% Last Year 8.25%
This index is what home equity lines are based on.
Dow Index
Current 13,359.61 Last Week: 13,245.64 Last Year 12,501.52
Nasdaq*
Current 2,676.79 Last Week: 2,640.86 Last Year 2,425.57

*"current" stock index values based on prior day's close

Unemployment*
National
November 2007: 4.5% October 2007: 4.4% November 2006: 4.3%
Orange County
November 2007: 4.2% October 2007: 4.2% November 2006: 3.1%

*Not seasonally adjusted. Figures released monthly. National typically gets released earlier than OC

C.A.R. Home Affordability Index*
California
Q3 2007: 24% Q2 2007: 24% Q3 2006: 24%
Orange County
Q3 2007: 24% Q2 2007: 23% Q3 2006: 22%
Los Angeles County
Q3 2007: 20% Q2 2007: 20% Q3 2006: 19%

*This is the percentage of California households that can afford to purchase an median-priced home.

Real Estate Stats
Median Home Price*
California
October 2007: $424,000 September 2007: $430,000 October 2006: $467,000
Orange County
November 2007: $582,750 October 2007: $573,750 November 2006: $623,000

(thank you to Russell Foster russell@goEMF.com for the information)

What does this all mean? If you are looking to purchase a new home and can qualify for a conforming loan, it is a great time to buy; if you are looking to purchase a second income property, it's a great time; If you are looking to get out of an apartment, now is the time.

On a pessimistic note, if you are thinking of selling your house, and you can't wait the five to eight years for the market to return, do it now: because you are not gong to see the prices you we being quoted only two years ago any time soon, and things will probably get worse before they get better.

current OC real estate facts

Okay kids here's a few frightening facts:

Calif. median home price - October 07: $497,110(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region October 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,325,000(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region October 07: High Desert $265,880(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Second Quarter 07: 24 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates - week ending 11/21: 30-yr. fixed: 6.20%; Fees/points: 0.5% 15-yr. fixed: 5.83%; Fees/points: 0.5% 1-yr. adjustable: 5.42%; Fees/points: 0.6% (Source: Freddie Mac)

Makes ya think a little doesn't it? But here's the real facts, it's a great time to buy a house, a gret time to look at getting a bargan on a short sale.